Plan for Peak Oil

The NSW Government urgently needs to re-shape public transport and urban environments to help oil-proof Sydney against future oil shortages.  But for years the NSW Treasurer Michale Costa was a self-confessed peak oil sceptic as well as a climate change sceptic, a dangerous combination with serious implications for NSW. 

Peak Oil Response Plan

In early 2008 The Greens introduced a private member's bill, the Peak Oil Response Plan Bill, to push the NSW Government to acknowledge the peak oil phenomenum, examine the situation and plan for a measured response to the impact that peak oil will have on NSW.

Read the text of the Bill .. more
Read Lee's speech on the Bill ... more
media release - Records petrol prices:  Government must oil proof NSW ... more
download Greens Peak Oil leaflet (pdfs) - front page | back page

Peak Oil will affect every aspect of modern life, including the farming, forestry, fishing, tourism, transport and manufacturing industries.   It will necessitate a new way of living, and monumental changes in the way we live, eat, commute and work.  At the same time the full impacts of climate change will unfold, placing enormous pressure on our economy.  The need for immediate action could not be more real.

Scientists, geologists and engineers all agree that the era of cheap plentiful oil is over.  Many disagree on exactly when the peak has or will happen, but oil supply figures, skyrocketing prices and statements from previously bullish oil and car company leaders point to it happening around 2012 (+- 5 years).  The exact timing is mostly irrelevant, and is likely to be revealed in the ‘rear view mirror’ as we accelerate into a future shaped by severe energy shortages.  Whether this future is marked by unrest, violence and exaggerated increases in  inequalities, or a less traumatic transition, depends upon our ability to plan and adapt.

“As it stands now, if we don’t change our energy system in a radical way in the next ten years, the wheels will come off.”
Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency (IEA)

Write to Premier Nathan Rees and ask him to support the Greens Peak Oil Response Plan Bill.

Premier Nathan Rees
Level 40 Governor Macquarie Tower,
1 Farrer Place SYDNEY 2000
thepremier@www.nsw.gov.au This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

We need strong leadership to confront this issue. By ignoring the very serious ramifications of Peak Oil, we are ensuring that the transition will be more painful than it can be.

The Greens Peak Oil Bill:

* sets up a Peak Oil Taskforce to inquire into and report on the best strategies to mitigate the impact of peak oil on New South Wales.
* institutes a moratorium on constructing oil dependent infrastructure, such as motorways, to be in place while the Taskforce undertakes its work.
and
*  requires that once the Peak Oil Taskforce has completed its work the NSW Premier will respond to the Taskforce's recommendations by developing a comprehensive action plan across government, with its implementation overseen by a parliamentary committee.

"Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large.  Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation. "  Hirsch Report

There are no quick fixes for this situation. Experts warn that even crash programs will require more than a decade to yield substantial relief.  It is urgent that we start preparing every aspect of society for this new era.  Practical moves such education and awareness programmes, developing and switching to renewable fuel sources, implementing energy efficiency measures and reducing greenhouse emissions need to be developed alongside preparing the industrial relations environment, transport, housing, health and welfare systems.

The first steps are encompassed in this Green Bill. Urge all members and all parties to support it. This is not a partisan or party political issue. It crosses traditional political boundaries and will affect all people regardless of their ideology.

It's not as if oil will just run out. But as the graph shows, oil supplies will gradually drop from this point in time onwards.

Our oil based economy doesn't need to run out of oil before it begins to suffer. A shortfall between demand and supply of as little as 10 per cent is enough to disrupt our economy and create hardship in our society.  We need to start preparing for peak oil today.

Links and Resources:

ASPO Australia
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/

ASPO Glossary
http://www.peakoil.net/about-peak-oil/glossary

Post Carbon Institute
http://www.postcarbon.org/

The Power of Community
http://www.powerofcommunity.org/cm/index.php

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
http://www.odac-info.org/

"Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management"
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader, Roger Bezdek, MISI & Robert Wendling, MISI (Commonly referred to as the 'Hirsch Report')
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

"Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City"
Jago Dodson and Neil Sipe
http://www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/urp_publications/research_papers/URP_RP6_OilVulnerability_Final.pdf

Greens Media Release to mark launch of the Bill, 17 March 2008
http://lee.greens.org.au/index.php/content/view/2457/50/

ASPO release from joint press conference with Bruce Robinson,
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/latest/sydney-should-be-preparing-now-for-future-oil-shortages.html

Sydney Morning Herald article on the Bill
http://news.smh.com.au/sydney-must-prepare-now-for-peak-oil/20080317-1zwt.html

 

We need to start building more public transport to oil-proof Sydney.